Running Back Values In the Middle Rounds of 2019 Fantasy Football Drafts
The 2018 running back class was one of the most talented we have ever seen. While some lived up to the hype, others failed to do so. But while many are quick to write-off guys like Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, and Ronald Jones as busts, I am taking advantage of the buying opportunity. After all, it was only one year ago that everyone wanted a piece of one of these backs. Now, they are some of the best running back values available in 2019.
This article is written from an advanced metrics, analytics view point. If you are unfamiliar with any of the terms used, click here for definitions.
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay
Ronald Jones experienced one of the worst rookie seasons in recent memory. It started bad with three healthy scratches in the first three weeks. Somehow it got even worse when he finally stepped on the field. Jones played in just nine games, touching the ball in six. He ended the year with 23 carries for 44 yards and one touchdown. He added seven receptions for 33 yards on nine targets. Jones never broke a run longer than nine yards while averaging an abysmal 1.91 yards per carry. He had a production premium of -29.0 and a 13.3-percent juke rate
Admittedly, I was driving the “Ronald Jones sucks” train all last summer. But, I hate ADPs, not players. While Jones did nothing but prove me right in his rookie campaign, there is no denying the opportunity for him to flourish will be there in 2019. Of course it is concerning that he failed to overtake career sub-4.0 yards per carry grinder Peyton Barber on the depth chart at any point. But with just Barber, Andre Ellington, Shaun Wilson, Bruce Anderson, and Dare Ogunbowale as the only competition for snaps, Jones is in prime position for a hefty workload. A new coaching staff led by Bruce Arians, gives the second-year back a clean slate and a second chance to make a first impression.
His current FFPC ADP of 150 overall, makes Jones one of the best values available. With an opportunity for a workhorse role in a prolific offense, Jones is a great pick in the eighth round or later.
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Rashaad Penny, Seattle
As Seattle’s first-round pick in 2018, Rashaad Penny was expected to face little competition for workhorse touches. However, things didn’t quite go according to plan as 2017 seventh-rounder Chris Carson out-played the rookie. Penny was left fighting with Mike Davis for the leftover touches. In 14 games, Penny ran just 85 times for 419 yards and two touchdowns, and caught only nine passes (12 targets) for 75 yards. He saw double-digit carries just twice all season.
I liked Penny a lot coming out of San Diego State, and still believe in the talent. He was a dominant player in college with a 50.1-percent (98th-percentile) college dominator and 10.8-percent (76th-percentile) target share. He averaged an incredible 7.8 yards per carry (96th-percentile) in his senior season. Penny finished that year with 2,248 rushing yards and 28 total touchdowns (including three kick/punt returns).
While his rookie campaign was disappointing, there is reason to believe a turnaround is in the near future. In his first season with Seattle, Penny was top-10 with an 8.2-percent big run rate (No. 6) and had a juke rate of 29.8-percent (No. 13). His true yards per carry was 16th best at 4.6. Penny is the most talented running back on the Seattle roster. If Pete Carroll realizes this, Penny will be a screaming value at a current FFPC ADP in the seventh round. The Seahawks led the league in both rushing yards and rush percentage (52.4-percent) in 2018. There is little reason to believe that will change in 2019. I will be selecting plenty of Penny in the middle rounds of my drafts this summer.
Rashaad Penny had a run of 15+ yards every 9.4 carries in 2018, the best rate in the NFL. #FantasyFootball #Seahawks
Via: @ChewOnSports pic.twitter.com/tNHJtf2yTa
— Yards Per Fantasy (@YardsPer) May 2, 2019
Royce Freeman, Denver
I was all over Royce Freeman last year. His situation made him one of the likeliest in the 2018 rookie class to find immediate production. I had no problem drafting him in the fifth round. Then a guy named Phillip Lindsay crashed the party. Lindsay had a Pro Bowl season as the lead back. Playing behind Lindsay, Freeman carried 130 times for 521 yards and five touchdowns. He added 14 receptions, eight of which came in Week 17, for 72 yards. Freeman’s rookie season was not as efficient as I would have liked to see. He barely cracked the top-30 in yards created per carry (1.28). His 24.3-percent juke rate was 32nd. Freeman had a production premium of -15.8 (No. 60) with a true yards per carry average of 3.9 (No. 46).
I still like Freeman. He has the size, athleticism, and college production indicative of a bell-cow at the NFL level. In four years at Oregon, Freeman totaled 6,435 yards from scrimmage and 64 touchdowns. He had three 1,000 yard rushing seasons and a 6.0 yards per carry average. He was a key part of the Oregon offense with a 30.4-percent college dominator (68th-percentile) and 8.3-percent (61st-percentile) target share. At 6-0, 229 pounds, Freeman ran a 4.54 40-yard dash, resulting in a 107.8 (86th-percentile) speed score. He possesses impressive agility for a guy of his size with an 11.06 (83rd-percentile) agility score.
Despite the strong 2018, Lindsay is no lock to see the same workload again. He is already dealing with a wrist injury and let’s be real, there are not a lot of 5-7, 184-pound workhorse running backs who can hold up for an entire season. Freeman is in prime position to, at worst, be the thunder to Lindsay’s lightning. With an ADP outside the top-100, Freeman is well worth a pick in the middle rounds. He is a great candidate for anyone taking on the Zero RB draft strategy.
