Rookie Running Backs Worth Drafting In 2019 ReDraft Leagues
Rookie running backs represent some of the best values in fantasy drafts every season. But we can’t draft just any rookie back and expect a productive season. Instead, we must identify which players to target and which are overvalued. Imagine drafting Royce Freeman in the third round in 2018. Yuck. To the contrary, taking Sony Michel in the seventh or Nick Chubb in the 11th led to championship runs. The key to unlock these values is to measure opportunity vs cost as well as consider a player’s talent and college production. There are four running backs that check all the boxes in 2019 and are worth targeting.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Are we really buying into Jordan Howard seeing significant snaps over Miles Sanders? Really? Really? Come on now. Sanders is far and away the more talented runner and a team as intelligent as the Eagles will see that too. Sure, he only had one year of production at Penn State, but look who he was stuck behind. After Saquon Barkley departed for the NFL, Sanders ran for 1,274 yards and nine touchdowns. He did so on 220 carries with a 5.8 (62nd-percentile) yards per carry average. He displayed natural receiving skills (24 receptions, 139 yards) both out of the backfield and lined up in the slot. At 5-11, 211-pounds, Sanders has the build to be an RB1 in the NFL. He possesses the above average athleticism we look for, too. At the NFL Combine, Sanders ran a 4.49 (81st-percentile) 40-yard dash leading to a 103.8 (75th-percentile) Speed Score. He is explosive and possesses elite lateral quickness as evidenced by his 123.2 (75th-percentile) Burst Score and 11.08 (83rd-percentile) Agility Score.
Sure, Sanders is a better athlete than Howard, we already knew that. But will the Eagles let the rookie dominate the backfield touches? After all, head coach Doug Pederson has a history of using a committee approach, right? In the last five years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Pederson’s lead running back averaged 11.1 carries per game. That’s not good. But, when we actually take a deeper look, it’s not so much that Pederson doesn’t feed his lead dog, as much as he lacked a talented RB1. In 2014, passed-his-prime Jamaal Charles averaged 13 carries and 15 total touches across 15 starts. In the one game he didn’t start, Knile Davis took on 32 carries. Charcandrick West led the Chiefs in carries in 2015. Do you really think West was worthy of a high-volume workload? Of course not.
Re: Miles Sanders
“Doug Pederson prefers a RBBC”
What a joke
RBs to lead Pederson’s teams in carries over last 5 years:
‘14: passed-his-prime Jamaal Charles: 15 touches/gm
‘15: Charcandrick West
‘16: 29-year-old Ryan Mathews
‘17: LeGarrette Blount/Ajayi
‘18: Josh Adams/Ajayi— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) August 1, 2019
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In Pederson’s first season as head coach in Philly, 29-year-old Ryan Mathews was the Eagles RB1. It was LeGarrette Blount in 2017 and Josh Adams in 2018 with JAG Jay Ajayi mixed in both seasons. When we go back to the last time Pederson had a healthy and talented RB1, Jamaal Charles averaged 17.3 carries per game in 2013 with over 100 targets and 70 receptions. The argument that Pederson prefers a RBBC is a complete fallacy. He just hasn’t had one worth riding and when he did, he rode him. Tangent over.
Back to 2019. Sanders has the advantage in capital, athleticism, and passing game efficiency. With an ADP in the seventh round as the 33rd running back off the board, Sanders is a complete steal in drafts. He will be the lead back on one of the league’s most prolific offenses. This will lend Sanders consistent high-end RB2 performances with weekly RB1 upside. He is one of my highest owned players in 2019 and there is no reason that won’t continue. I expect him to lead me to many championship wins. .
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
I have selected Damien Harris in a ton of my drafts since the Patriots made him their third-round pick. He has an opportunity to seize a major role in a great offense. Last year’s first round pick, Sony Michel, has been participating in training camp practices after opening on the PUP list. He missed all of offseason workouts after reportedly undergoing a knee scope. Michel sat out most of training camp last year with a knee injury and missed three games during the regular season with the same knee issues. New England’s decision to spend another pick in the first three rounds on a running back, may indicate there are continued concerns about Michel’s health.Another flare up would open the door to an opportunity for Harris to seize a massive workload in year one.
While it sometimes is difficult to predict which New England running back will be the one to own in fantasy, the Patriots are notorious for producing mega fantasy numbers from their backfield. They have been top-10 in rushing yards every year from 2016-2018. They landed inside the top-10 in run rate in two of the last three seasons, including a ninth place finish in 2018 at 45.4-percent. The Patriots have finished top-12 in rushing touchdowns in every season since 2004 (15 seasons), landing outside the top-10 just three times over that span. Dion Lewis, James White, and LeGarrette Blount have performed as fantasy stars from that backfield in recent seasons. Harris could be next.
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Harris was my pre-NFL Draft rookie RB3. Despite sharing a backfield with other NFL-caliber runners at Alabama, Harris proved he has the tools to be a three-down back. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry during his four year career with back-to-back seasons of more than 1,000 yards rushing from 2016-2017. He showed off his receiving prowess as a senior with 22 receptions for 204 yards. At 5-10, 216-pounds, Harris’ 4.57 40-yard dash time translates to a 99.0 (61st-percentile) Speed Score His most impressive trait is his 123.4 (77th-percentile) Burst Score. His best comparable players include successful NFL backs like Damien Williams, Devonta Freeman, C.J. Anderson, and Chris Carson.
With an ADP in the 11th round, Harris provides tremendous late-round value. With the Patriots undoubtedly looking to ease up on Michel’s workload, Harris will provide standalone fantasy value. If the knee continues to be an issue, though, Harris will vault into RB1 territory as the lead back in a high-scoring offense. I will continue to draft Harris without hesitation this summer and reap the rewards during the season.
Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
Justice Hill is another rookie running back I am pounding the button on in fantasy drafts. His 15th round ADP makes him an incredible value for a guy with his athleticism and opportunity. Hill’s 4.40 40-yard dash, 40-inch vertical jump, and 130-inch broad jump were best among all running backs at this year’s NFL Combine. At 5-10, 198-pounds, that performance translates to a 105.7 (82nd-percentile) Speed Score and an incredible Burst Score of 133.0 (95th-percentile). Hill was an early producer at the college level and will look to do the same in the NFL. At 19 years old, Hill overtook incumbent starter Chris Carson, setting the Oklahoma State record for most rushing yards (1,142) by a freshman. While he won’t be asked to take on a bellcow roll in the NFL, Hill proved he is more than just a change-of-pace satellite back by reaching 30 carries on three separate occasions during his sophomore season.
Hill joins the Ravens as a fourth round pick and is immediately the most talented runner on the roster. His 31 receptions and nine-percent target share in 2017, indicate he has the receiving skills to be a quality pass catcher at the NFL level. But Hill has a real shot at eating into veteran Mark Ingram’s early downs workload as well. Ingram was a product of a great offense and elite run blocking unit in New Orleans and will not be incredibly difficult to surpass on the depth chart. I’m not saying the rookie will completely overtake the vet, but I can’t see Ingram dominating the touches for a full season.
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Either way, Hill is in line for decent volume considering the Ravens’ desire to run the football. After Lamar Jackson took over the starting quarterback job, the Ravens averaged the lowest number of passing attempts per game (23.4) since the 2004 Steelers. They finished with the most rush attempts and third-highest run rate. That was after leading the league in pass attempts over the first nine games with Joe Flacco. In Jackson’s seven starts during the regular season, Baltimore running backs averaged 28.1 carries per game. In 106 career games, Ingram has averaged 12.5 rush attempts with 13 per game over the last three seasons. Assuming he sees a similar workload, that leaves nearly 15 carries per game to other backs. I expect Hill to take a large share of those.
I have Hill ranked above James White, Tarik Cohen, D’Onta Foreman, Jerrick McKinnon, Kareem Hunt, Nyheim Hines, and more. All it will take is a couple explosive plays in the preseason or an injury to Ingram for Hill’s ADP to see a major spike. Take advantage of his low cost before that happens. At worst, he will be a quality flex play—with serious RB1 upside if the chips fall his way. I am smashing the button well before the 15th round.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson’s ADP has been consistently dropping over the last few weeks with Todd Gurley participating in training camp practices. But that only makes Henderson more appealing. Gurley’s knee is certainly a concern and he is a fade in fantasy drafts because of it. He is still in line for RB1 work, but the volume we are used to getting from him is unlikely to be repeated. This opens the door for Henderson to carve out enough of a role for himself to return standalone fantasy value. With this comes the massive upside of an even larger role if Gurley’s faulty knee flares up again.
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The Rams’ move to trade up to select Henderson in the early third round indicates to me that they too are concerned about Gurley’s knee. Coming out of Memphis, Henderson was my 1b to Miles Sanders’ 1a among the 2019 running back draft class. He had a tremendous career at Memphis, departing as the second-leading rusher in the program’s history. His 33.9-percent College Dominator Rating lands in the 77th-percentile. Henderson averaged an incredible 8.9 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons. His 1,909 rushing yards in 2018 were the second most in the nation and included 22 touchdowns on 214 carries. He had 43 carries of 15 or more yards and 11 total touchdowns longer than 53 yards. His 6.16 yards after contact per attempt was best in the country. Henderson possesses above average receiving skills, too. He had 19 or more receptions in all three seasons at Memphis with 15.5 yards per reception and a 7.4-percent target share last season. Despite being only 5-8, Henderson weighs 208-pounds, giving him an 80th-percentile BMI. He ran a 4.49 (81st-percentile) 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, resulting in a 102.4 (72nd-percentile) Speed Score.
You will be hard pressed to find greater upside in the eighth round. The rookie presents a decent floor as a flex play with upside if he plays in an Alvin Kamara-type role. The upside is even greater if Gurley can’t stay healthy. In an offense that is as prolific and running back-friendly as the Rams’, Henderson would be a league winner if he were thrust into that top spot.
