Preseason Week One: Fantasy Football Impact
Many of us have a love/hate relationship with the early portion of the preseason. We love it because football returns after a long absence. And then we hate these initial games because too many stars sit out. Ultimately, we watch even though a lot of players will be long gone by the start of September. But, they can provide some fantasy insight. Every tidbit we take away from these games can help make the difference between contending and pretending. I hope you enjoy my look back at the games and some other notes from around the league. I call it Sizzle/Fizzle, looking at who delivered the goods and who disappointed in this preseason week one fantasy review.
Bucs at Steelers
Sizzle
Championed by most of the fantasy community, Chris Godwin’s touchdown catch sent joy through the hearts of many. Yes, it was only the preseason, but that score validated the improvement of Jameis Winston. And it justifies the elevation of Godwin into potential superstar territory. To a degree, this sounds like heavy preseason overreaction. Nonetheless, with Bruce Arians steering the Tampa Bay battleship, reality should trump overreaction.
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All of the praise garnished upon Donte Moncrief must have inspired James Washington. In his second season out of Oklahoma State, Washington caught four passes for 84 yards and a score. Moncrief likely remains ahead of Washington, but the gap surely has narrowed. In an offense that will spread the ball around more. Both players ought to be productive and neither has an exorbitant price tag. Both of Pittsburgh’s backup quarterbacks, Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs, looked sharp. And Jaylen Samuels gave James Conner fans further reason for angst.
For those in IDP leagues, Pittsburgh linebacker Devin Bush produced 10 tackles, seven of which were solo. The Steelers traded up to take Bush in the first round of April’s draft. Fantasy owners may want to do the same.
Fizzle
While Samuels looms as a threat to Conner, Benny Snell may not. The former Kentucky Wildcat was buried by the Buccaneer defense, notching 26 yards on 13 carries. Snell had one nice catch, but his debut could be classified as dreary.
Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones turned in respectable debuts. However, it was Dare Ogunbowale who rushed for two touchdowns. Just a reminder the Tampa backfield could still be wide open. Ogunbowale had earned previous praise from Arians prior to the game.
Cowboys at 49ers
Sizzle
San Francisco’s rookie skill players shined as the 49ers conquered the Cowboys. Jalen Hurd scored a pair of touchdowns while Deebo Samuel caught two passes for 61 yards. With Trent Taylor out with a broken foot, extra targets are available. Hurd will line up in the slot more with Taylor sidelined, boosting his case as a sleeper. Beyond George Kittle, consistency could be fleeting for most components of the San Francisco offense. But few doubt this will be a good offense. If the rookies keep performing well, they should at least be contributors during bye weeks and in daily formats. And maybe more as you will see below.
Fizzle
A darling of many during the offseason, the Dante Pettis hype train seems on the verge of being derailed. Pettis appears to be on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s bad side. Shanahan made comments this week that indicate Pettis is far from a lock for a starting job. Can he gravitate back to the good side during the next couple of weeks? If not, fantasy owners who already drafted Pettis will be feeling disappointed. And those planning on pursuing Pettis in upcoming drafts will have to rethink their plans.
Cursed by injury since heading to the Bay Area, a potential stint on injured reserve may await Jerick McKinnon. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida look like much better buys. Although Shanahan loves committees, fantasy owners drafting Coleman and Breida know two committee parts are better than three. The situation has gone from a hot mess to a mild one.
Generally, it was an uneventful night for the Cowboys. But one of the better performers for Dallas was tight end Blake Jarwin. Jarwin, who had some occasional nice moments in 2018, caught four passes for 51 yards. I point this out not because I want you to put Jarwin among your TE2 ranks, but because stands as another reminder that Jason Witten will not have the involvement he had in the past. Target someone else with more potential for your TE2.
Chargers at Cardinals
Sizzle
Although Kyler Murray did not lead Arizona to points, the first overall pick looked the part. Murray went 6-for-7 and sent his already soaring stock higher. Rookie wide receiver KeeSean Johnson pulled in two passes for 29 yards. Drafted after Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler, positive press seems to follow Johnson. It will be interesting to see if Isabella and Butler can regain ground during the remainder of the preseason. The WR3 after Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk will have value in the Air Raid offense.
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Fizzle
Melvin Gordon’s money play continues to look like a mistake. Although Austin Ekeler lost a fumble, he also produced 69 total yards in very limited playing time. Justin Jackson averaged 4.4 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. Those days where Gordon got drafted fifth overall in fantasy leagues are gone, at least until he returns to the team. But hey, now you might be able to get Gordon in the fifth round as opposed to fifth overall.
Patriots at Lions
Sizzle
Fantasy owners seem to be content to let Tom Brady slide on draft day. The biggest reason Brady’s ADP remains lower than you would expect, resides with his supporting cast. That supporting cast sought to silence the critics in Motown and succeeded. Undrafted Jakobi Meyers dashed through the Detroit defense for six catches, 69 yards, and two touchdowns. Redskins castoff Maurice Harris also found the end zone. Braxton Berrios, first-round pick N’Keal Harry, and tight end Matt LaCosse also had their moments. We do not know yet who will offer the most value behind Julian Edelman. Regardless, it looks like the Patriot Way again pivots in the right direction. And Brady may yet be a sleeper.
Fizzle
The Lions put just three points on the board, but injuries made things even worse. Veteran wide receiver Jermaine Kearse was lost for the season with a broken leg. While not on the fantasy radar, Kearse could have provided another safety valve for Matthew Stafford. Backup quarterback Tom Savage also suffered an injury, prompting Detroit to sign Josh Johnson. Needless to say, the Lions need things to break better this weekend in Houston.
Broncos at Seahawks
Sizzle
Denver’s plans for a shared backfield look sharp. Royce Freeman ripped off a 50-yard run and Phillip Lindsay looked healthy. With recent acquisition Theo Riddick dealing with a fractured shoulder, the duo dominates the Denver chain of command. Devontae Booker may keep his roster spot with Riddick out, but it’s hard to see the Broncos giving him many touches. Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP has Lindsay going in the fourth round with Freeman being selected in the eighth. Another impressive showing and Freeman may narrow that gap.
Fizzle
One preseason game should not cause anyone to press the panic button on Rashaad Penny. Although Penny was held to 15 yards on six carries, the hyped second-year back had a 27-yard reception. Nevertheless, the fact Seattle held Chris Carson out, further shows Carson remains the main runner for the Seahawks. Penny did not seem to close the gap. Since the game, Seahawks coaches have expressed a desire to create a larger role for Carson in the passing game. Room remains for both runners to make an impact. However, the lead role clearly seems to belong to Carson.
Rams at Raiders
Sizzle
This California clash proved to be the least compelling game of Week 1. When Nathan Peterman looks like a star, we have serious issues. To his credit, Peterman threw fewer interceptions than Mike Glennon. Derek Carr may not be America’s greatest starting quarterback, but with Glennon and Peterman behind him, Carr looks sensational by comparison.
Fizzle
Speaking of Carr, by now, we had hoped to hear about good chemistry between Carr and Antonio Brown. Instead, Brown’s epic meltdown has us pondering other thoughts. Do we name our team “Brown’s Frozen Tundra” or “Brown’s Banned Helmet?” Right now, drafters may find it hard to touch Brown with a 10-foot pole.
With Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown not playing, heralded rookie Darrell Henderson struggled. Henderson lost five yards on a reception and rushed for just 13 yards on six carries. He also came off the bench behind John Kelly. Henderson will probably be just fine, but a better showing against Dallas would be pleasant to see.
Falcons at Dolphins
Sizzle
Problems off the field led to Dolphins wide receiver Preston Williams going undrafted. Williams sure looked like a legitimate top receiver against Atlanta with four receptions for 97 yards. With DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Albert Wilson currently leading the way, Miami clearly could use a breakout star. Time will tell if Williams can keep it going, but for now, he merits watching. One of his catches set up a short touchdown run by Kalen Ballage. Ballage finished the night with slightly better numbers than Kenyan Drake. A time share seems likely in South Florida, with Ballage likely seeing most of the work at the goal line. With a lower ADP, banking on Ballage may be better than overpaying for Drake.
Fizzle
Ito Smith turned in a second straight lackluster effort. While Smith scored a touchdown, he rushed for just seven yards on four carries. Brian Hill outplayed Smith as he had in the Hall of Fame game. Additionally, rookie Qadree Ollison averaged 5.1 yards per carry. If this trend continues, owners may need to hit the pause button on Smith. Getting Devonta Freeman’s caddy makes sense, but you do not want the wrong caddy.
Redskins at Browns
Sizzle
Baker Mayfield boomed on his first drive of the season, connecting with Rashard Higgins on a 24-yard touchdown. Higgins had a huge night with five receptions for 98 yards and the score. It will not be the first time this year Higgins delivers headlines. With Antonio Callaway suspended and injured, Higgins looks to be the WR3 in Cleveland. Yes, that is a secondary spot behind Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and David Njoku. However, with Cleveland’s offense on the rise, Higgins will have his moments. Higgins ought to be on your radar as a potential late-round target.
Fizzle
A triumphant return to Ohio did not materialize for rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins. A star down the road in Columbus, Haskins threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Meanwhile, Case Keenum, while far from great, connected with Robert Davis on a 46-yard scoring play. It was a blown coverage by the Browns, but was the best offensive moment of the night for Washington. The Redskins look like a catastrophe in progress regardless, but Haskins must improve during act two against Cincinnati.
Jaguars at Ravens
Sizzle
One preseason game does not make Lamar Jackson a smooth efficient passer. Baltimore likes what they saw so far, however, as Jackson was 4-for-6 for 59 yards. The second-year signal caller from Louisville also threw a touchdown to veteran Willie Snead. Jackson remains quite likeable as a QB2, easily capable of utilizing his rushing cheat code for a QB1 push. Other positives for the Ravens included the fact that rookie Justice Hill led the team in rushing. And fellow rookie wide receiver Miles Boykin led the team in receptions.
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Fizzle
Congratulations to the entire Jacksonville squad for showing up in this category. When you are held scoreless in a preseason game, you earn a wing in the Hall of Shame. Sure, Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette were nowhere to be seen, but when you face vanilla defenses and players destined for the waiver wire, embarrassment is the only applicable description. At least Ryquell Armstead led the team in rushing. Armstead, a rookie from Temple, offers the most intrigue as Fournette’s handcuff.
Titans at Eagles
Sizzle
Although an injured calf will sideline Dallas Goedert for some time, his performance leaves a very positive impression. Goedert hauled in three passes for 50 yards. A TE2 with a TE1 ceiling, drafting Goedert makes considerable sense. How many other tight ends offer superstar potential on the bench? An old saying exists that the backup quarterback happens to be the most popular person in town. If Ryan Tannehill keeps performing well, he may be more beloved in Nashville than many country singers. Tannehill threw for 130 yards and two touchdowns while starter Marcus Mariota underwhelmed. If you want to invest in any Titan receivers, Tannehill will keep them afloat if Mariota falters or gets hurt again.
Fizzle
Neither of Philadelphia’s expected lead runners did much to distinguish themselves. Jordan Howard rushed for eight yards with Miles Sanders rushing for three yards. Granted, neither played all that much, but it would have been nice to see more. Especially from Sanders, who may be a few sensational plays from leading the backfield. Howard represents a known commodity of stability with little upside. Sanders theoretically offers so much more. Maybe this unremarkable outing will reduce his ADP a bit. And we will be laughing about this if Sanders sets off sparks in Jacksonville.
Jets at Giants
Sizzle
The first-team offense for the Jets generated a solid scoring drive. Sam Darnold connected with Jamison Crowder on a 3-yard touchdown pass. Even more impressive for Darnold and company was the fact they did it while Le’Veon Bell did not play. At this point, Darnold and his receivers have good shots at outpacing their ADPs. They may move beyond the bargain bin with another good showing on Thursday in Atlanta.
At some point, the Giants will have to cut the cord with Eli Manning. Daniel Jones offers a promising future. He jolted the Jets defense by completing all five of his attempts for 67 yards and a touchdown. The quarterback controversy will rage after Jones’ dazzling debut. And that may turn out to be a good thing for the Giants.
Fizzle
Why bother with even trying to figure out Saquon Barkley’s handcuff? Wayne Gallman averaged 2.6 yards per carry and suffered a foot strain. Rod Smith had 12 yards on six carries. Paul Perkins lost a fumble and notched nine yards on four carries. How horrifying will the Giants offense be if something happens to Barkley? New York fans and fantasy owners do not want to find out.
Texans at Packers
Sizzle
With Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams inactive, sixth-round pick Dexter Williams performed well. Averaging 4.4 yards per carry, Williams finished with 80 total yards. Although many believe Aaron Jones will breakout in 2019, Jones ended last season on injured reserve. And Jones also missed time in 2017 due to injury. Jamaal Williams used to be a favorite of former Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy. But with a new regime, will Jamaal’s ability to do all the little things matter as much?
Certainly, you do not want to race out and draft Dexter Williams. But if he cements the third spot in Green Bay’s backfield, he could be a hit on the waiver wire down the line. At a minimum, dynasty league owners ought to roster him if they have not already.
Fizzle
The normally pleasant sight of legendary Lambeau Field turned unpleasant for Keke Coutee. Coutee muffed a punt that led to a Green Bay touchdown and then was injured after catching a pass. After injuries cost him most of his rookie season, it feels like Coutee may be cursed. Regarded as a sleeper by many, the return of his durability issues will take him off many draft boards. At the right price, gambling on Coutee offers dividends, but nobody needs to be granting him a big role.
Vikings at Saints
Sizzle
Kirk Cousins will endure criticism until he leads Minnesota on a deep playoff run. And you cannot overly celebrate preseason accomplishments, but Cousins connected with Adam Thielen on a 34-yard pass. They looked to be in midseason form. Rookie tight end Irv Smith caught three passes.
While Drew Brees sat out, Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill played well. Bridgewater went 14-for-19 for 134 yards and a touchdown. Hill rushed for 45 yards and also threw for 80 yards and a score. If you draft Michael Thomas or Jared Cook, at least you know the New Orleans offense will not turn into a disaster if Brees ends up missing time.
Fizzle
Thought to be Dalvin Cook’s handcuff, rookie Alexander Mattison caught a short touchdown pass from Cousins. However, Mattison and the rest of the Minnesota bench saw Mike Boone score on a 64-yard scamper. Additionally, former Detroit draft bust Ameer Abdullah averaged 15.8 yards per carry, although he lost a fumble. Mattison remains the favorite for the number two spot, but the battle looks to be heating up.
Eager to upgrade their special teams, the Vikings made a trade with Baltimore for kicker Kaare Vedvik. Vedvik, stuck behind All-World Justin Tucker, nailed four field goals in Baltimore’s 29-0 win over Jacksonville. Vedvik’s arrival means once reliable Dan Bailey will not be long for Minnesota. And Vedvik could be a sleeper as part of a decent Minnesota offense.
Panthers at Bears
Sizzle
The stature of David Montgomery keeps growing. An ADP riser before the game, Montgomery leaped even more after scoring a seven-yard touchdown. He also hauled in three passes for 30 yards. It must be pointed out that Mike Davis earned the start and Tarik Cohen did not play. But why spoil the party? Montgomery will continue to make his case for being Chicago’s best all-around back. Fantasy owners are eager for Montgomery’s encore.
Chicago’s kickers give their fans nightmares. Gasps were heard throughout Chicagoland when Eddy Pinearo missed a try on Thursday night. But Elliott Fry drilled a 43-yard try and also connected on an extra point. If Chicago can find someone credible, they will put up good numbers thanks to a rising offense.
Fizzle
All of the Panthers we wanted to see were nowhere to be found. In light of that, we will focus on news from MMQB’s Albert Breer. Breer reported the Carolina brass would like to delegate a lot of Christian McCaffrey’s short-yardage and goal-line work. In an ideal world, Carolina would probably love to rest McCaffrey more. However, in a tight game, are they really going to pull McCaffrey for Cameron Artis-Payne or Jordan Scarlett? I highly doubt it. Maybe he loses a few opportunities, but nothing has changed with CMC. He stays in the top three overall without question.
Bengals at Chiefs
Sizzle
Kansas City rookie Mecole Hardman showcased his home run ability. Hardman scored on a 17-yard pass and also produced a 44-yard kickoff return. In an offense with many mouths to feed, Hardman will be inconsistent. Nevertheless, Hardman makes a great best ball target. His current ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator resides in the 13th round. With Tyreek Hill back in the fold, the ADP for Sammy Watkins falls to the eighth round. You do not have to overpay to get Watkins. However, with his injury history, a later selection on Hardman represents a superior choice.
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In their first outing under new head coach Zac Taylor, Cincinnati’s first-team offense generated a touchdown. Andy Dalton had his ups and downs on the drive, but Taylor had to like the end result. Especially considering Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard did not play. In their place, rookie Trayveon Williams visited the end zone.
Fizzle
The Damien Williams will be a star truthers were given reasons to recoil. Sixth-round rookie Darwin Thompson out of Utah State caught a 29-yard touchdown pass. Thompson also rushed for 22 yards. Veteran Carlos Hyde, perceived to be the biggest threat to Williams, also found the end zone. Hyde’s touchdown essentially came as a gift from Patrick Mahomes, but he still delivered at the goal line.
Colts at Bills
Sizzle
While he ran a bit hot and cold, Buffalo rookie Devin Singletary delivered some encouraging signs. Singletary made a nice catch out of the backfield, and came close to breaking some longer runs. Most importantly, Singletary received nine carries. LeSean McCoy did not play and Frank Gore appeared briefly, but Buffalo clearly wanted to see Singletary in action. Fantasy owners should be encouraged. If Singletary keeps it up, a larger role awaits. His 11th-round ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator makes him a great investment.
Fizzle
How concerned should we be about Andrew Luck? His calf injury has been an issue for months. At first, some people almost seemed relieved about the injury. His shoulder was not a problem and he would get over the calf. Yet, the Captain stays on the sidelines. Jacoby Brissett could start for some teams and Chad Kelly played well in Orchard Park. Regardless, the Colts go nowhere without Luck. As for fantasy, fortunately, quarterback remains deep. Outside of 2QB leagues, you can find a quality alternative. But if Luck does not return soon, show lots of restraint in spending a premium pick on him.
