Fantasy Football’s Overvalued Players Of 2019–Part Two
This is part two of my list of 20 overvalued fantasy football players I am avoiding based on current ADP. Part One consisted of 10 late-round players. Part two will cover mid and early rounders. Each month I will revisit and see who needs to be removed or added to our list. ADP data is based on PPR leagues via FFCalculator.
10. N’Keal Harry (WR, New England)
First round pick N’Keal Harry has been over-drafted in both redraft and dynasty formats. At WR33 in the 8th round, Harry is getting too much love for a rookie. The Patriots have plenty of vacated targets from last season’s Super Bowl team. Rob Gronkowski retired, Josh Gordon’s status is up in the air, Chris Hogan and Cordarrelle Patterson are gone. However, I project the Patriots offensive production to decline. As the offense trends towards a more run oriented approach, the number of targets to go around will diminish. The Patriots signed veteran Demaryius Thomas to join Harry, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, and Dontrelle Inman. Ben Watson is currently slated to receive the Tight End reps once his four game suspension is up. Rookie receivers often struggle to produce consistently in year one. There have already been reports out of mini-camp that Harry has struggled to separate from New England’s cornerbacks in practice. At WR33 there are 24-36 other WRs I’d rather have than count on Harry as my WR3.
9. Geronimo Allison (WR, Green Bay)
Geronimo Allison has been going right around Harry in ADP. Allison is being drafted in the eighth or ninth round, WR 30 to 36. That’s a hefty price considering Allison hasn’t topped 23 receptions in his first three seasons. Aaron Rodgers will be missing Randall Cobb but Jimmy Graham is healthy. After Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Kumerov are Packers wideouts you can get later with greater upside.
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8. Jordan Howard (RB, Philadelphia)
Jordan Howard has been going around RB38 overall, early in the eighth round. The Eagles deployed a RBBC as last season. Five different runners managed to finish the season with 120 or more rushing yards. Coach Doug Pederson is a smart guy and knows running backs break down, it’s why they drafted Miles Sanders in the second round and traded for Howard. Corey Clement, Wendell Smallwood and Josh Adams remain in the mix as well. Howard will likely be limited to nothing more than a goal line or short yardage back. Sanders possesses a three-down skill set and should supplant Howard for the RB1 reps as early as training camp. Howard has never been a PPR guy. His highest catch total of 29 receptions came in his rookie season. I see Howard as an eight-to-12 touch guy behind Sanders with some Adams, Clement, and Smallwood mixed in At his ADP, give me the lottery boom/bust picks like Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, or Royce Freeman.
Of the Top 24 RBs in PPR format in 2018, Jordan Howard had the 2nd lowest YPC with 3.74 behind only David Johnson. @createArank @fantasy_finest
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) June 13, 2019
7. Lamar Miller (RB, Houston)
Lamar Miller has always been a high floor, low ceiling kind of guy. He is far from a sexy pick and rarely out-produces his ADP. Miller has been going in the early seventh round. At that point, I want more upside. Miller has averaged 973 yards and 6 TDs the last three seasons. With D’Onta Foreman healthy and Miller on the last year of his deal, we may see a changing of the guard as the season progresses.
6. Chris Godwin (WR, Tampa Bay)
Chris Godwin has been going around the fifth round at WR22.. I don’t feel comfortable with him as my WR2 at that price. WR3 sure, but there are a handful of players available three-to-five rounds later that will provide similar production. Lee Rosen-Swell, Create-A-Rank writer and co-host of the Lineup Locked Podcast, went into greater detail in a recent article about how overvalued the third-year WR is right now. Check it out here!
5. Kenyan Drake (RB, Miami)
The Miami Dolphins are going to be bad in 2019. I tend to shy away from running backs on teams that are hunting for the number one pick. Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Josh Rosen will lead an inefficient offense, limiting scoring opportunities for Kenyan Drake. While he may see similar results in receptions as last year (53) I am projecting 140-150 carries for about 650-700 yards. Drake is currently being drafted in the early fifth round around RB26. I’m not loving the RBs available around this part of the draft. I’m focusing on WR depth or my starting TE instead.
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4. Sony Michel (RB, New England)
Sony Michel‘s ADP hovers around the mid-fourth round. With lingering knee issues, the addition of Damien Harris, and the Patriots tendency to play hot-potato with their running backs, Michel isn’t someone I want to have on my roster at a fourth round price. James White is the New England back I want a few rounds later. Game script is what matters most for New England. Michel had a productive playoff run, but battled knee issues for most of the regular season. Michel doesn’t catch the ball much, making him more touchdown dependent. With Harris, Rex Burkhead and White in the mix, I’m afraid Michel will be preserved with his lingering knee issue until the playoffs.
Sony Michel was only targeted 11 times in 13 games in 2018, resulting in 7 catches for 50 yards. Look elsewhere in PPR leagues at his current ADP. @createArank @fantasy_finest
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) June 13, 2019
3. Phillip Lindsay (RB, Denver)
Phillip Lindsay is RB21 according to latest ADP data. Regression is coming for Lindsay. The Broncos spent a third round pick on Royce Freeman who earned rave reviews this spring. The backfield won’t be as heavily favored to Lindsay this fall as it was last year. I expect a split backfield and at those ADPs, give me Freeman in the eighth round. With a new coaching staff coming in, Lindsay isn’t guaranteed anything and Freeman will have another chance to show he’s the more talented back. Lindsay is still recovering from wrist surgery and the longer that takes the more opportunities Freeman will have to make his mark. I’m passing on Lindsay at his fourth round price.
2. A.J. Green (WR, Cincinatti)
A.J. Green has a June ADP in the early-to-mid third round, right around the WR 12-13 range. This is where I like a lot of receivers but Green isn’t one of them. The Bengals are shifting towards a more run-centric offense with Joe Mixon and a beefed-up offensive line. Tyler Boyd broke out last season and the offense will get Giovanni Bernard and Tyler Eifert back. Looking at Green’s last three seasons, he averaged 62.3 receptions for 912 yards and six scores. As he gets up there in age, Green just can’t seem to stay healthy. Two years ago an ACL ended his season, last year it was toe surgery. I’d rather have Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, and Julian Edelman in the same round.
1. Todd Gurley (RB, Los Angeles Rams)
While Todd Gurley is slowly falling down the ADP ranks, he’s still a fade. I’d rather have Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Nick Chubb. It’s no secret that the Rams are trying to protect their recent $60 million investment. The former MVP had an amazing 2018 season but really wore down and was ineffective during the Super Bowl run. The Rams traded up 24 spots to get their version of Alvin Kamara in Darrell Henderson. While Gurley will still be effective, we just don’t know how that knee will hold up to even a reduced workload. If I’m drafting a RB in the early rounds, I want someone I know I can count on. Instead, I’m targeting Henderson in every draft. He, not Gurley, could be your 2019 league winner.
