Three weeks into the season, the NFL naturally begins to settle down. The initial excitement and consequent overreactions are fading away, leaving very real questions on what to do with players that are fantasy busts compared to their draft capital so far. This creates panic throughout their fantasy owners. It is nearly impossible to tell if you are justified in your panic, or if you should weather the storm another few weeks. Below are some NFL fantasy busts our experts are either moving on from or still believe in.
PANIC: Sony Michel, RB, New England
Now, I must preface this panic. This isn’t a “you must sell this instant” type of panic. Rather, if the game against the New York Jets taught us anything, it’s that even in the most positive game scripts, Sony Michel cannot be trusted. To back this, just look at his three fantasy games. His first, against Pittsburgh (where NE won handily), he ran the ball 15 times for a meagre 14 yards. Then, in another great matchup in Miami, Michel rebounded for 83 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. After that, he falls back down this week to the tune of 9 attempts for just 11 yards. In a game that James White didn’t even play in. If that doesn’t terrify a fantasy owner, I’m not sure what does.
Adding in his lack of receiving ability, Michel is someone I’m looking to move on from and is considered an NFL fantasy bust. I am not advocating to drop Michel, but I would be actively seeking trades to move him off my team. Michel likely falls to the RB 2/3 borderline for the rest of the season due to his volatility. If I could get players like Josh Jacobs or Mark Ingram for him, I’d flip him quickly.
PANIC: Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins was fourth in pass attempts in 2018, and wide receiver Stefon Diggs was a great beneficiary of that passing volume. As a result, both Diggs and teammate Adam Thielen were drafted as top-12 WRs this summer. The fantasy community, myself included, ignored the smoke signals coming from Minnesota, indicating the team wanted to be a run-heavy offense in 2019.
In the three games after Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator last season, the Vikings threw the ball just 82 times (27 per game). It’s been even worse to start the new season with just 10 pass attempts in Week 1, 32 despite playing from behind for much of Week 2, and 21 in Week 3’s win over the Raiders. As a result, Diggs has just 12 targets in three games, with six receptions, 101 yards, and one touchdown. He had four individual games with more than 12 targets, and four with more than 101 yards in 2018. He hadn’t had a game of fewer than four targets since 2015, he has had two such performances already.
While I understood they weren’t going to reach 600 pass attempts again, I didn’t fade the Vikings passing game as much as I should have. Now I am paying the price with a bunch of Diggs shares across my leagues. I am in full-blown panic mode and willing to sell to anyone who still believes he can return to last season’s pace.
Panic: Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
When fantasy drafters selected Robert Woods in the late fourth, early fifth rounds they expected a whole lot more consistency and production than he’s given them so far. Week 1 started off well, giving those that invested in him eight catches for 70 yards on 13 targets. Raise your hand if you would have guessed those would be half of his total production through three weeks. Those of you with your hands raised are correct. Through three weeks Woods has amassed 23 targets, 13 catches, 143 yards. To be fair he does get roughly one carry per game for an average of 8 yards, so there’s that. Unfortunately, only one of those carries has ever gone for a touchdown.
