Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 2019 Breakout Star
Fantasy football draft strategy 101 says use the first four or five rounds to add players with a safe floor. Then, after the top-50 picks, flip the script and draft for upside. This is where the savvy fantasy gamers have an advantage. Using research and data-driven analysis we can identify the players with not just the highest ceiling, but the highest probability of reaching their maximum potential. In 2019, Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling falls in that category.
Packers WR2 Primed For Breakout Season
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is quietly one of the best breakout wide receiver candidates of 2019. He is in prime position to win the WR2 job on the Packers depth chart behind Davante Adams. Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow, Equanimeous St. Brown, and J’Mon Moore are not exactly tough competition. With Randall Cobb and others out the door, the Packers have 114 vacated targets (18.5-percent) and 669 (12.2-percent) air yards available from 2018.
MVS is entering his second season since he was selected in the fifth round of the 2018 draft. He had a solid, but mostly inconsistent, rookie campaign. The highs came in Weeks six and nine when he topped 100 yards against the 49ers and Patriots. He also finished eight games with fewer than 20 receiving yards. The rookie from USF finished with 38 receptions on 72 targets for 581 yards and two touchdowns. No Packers rookie has had more receiving yards during the Aaron Rodgers era. His 15.3 yards yards per reception was a team-best and ranked 18th among all wide receivers. He finished in the top-50 in target separation (1.46 yards) and average target distance (12.3 yards).
Where Do You Rank MVS in 2019? – Create Your Own Rankings Now!
The Upside is Real
At 6-4, 206-pounds, and possessing a 111.2 (70th-percentile) SPARQ-x score, MVS is the most athletic wide receiver on the Packers depth chart. With a 4.37 (96th-percentile) 40-yard dash at the Combine, Valdes-Scantling lands in the 97th-percentile with a 117.6 Speed Score. His 11.02 (74th-percentile) Agility Score, displays the impressive lateral movement needed to be an effective slot receiver. MVS ran 41-percent of his routes and accumulated nearly half of his receptions from the slot. That number will increase with Cobb’s free agent departure.
There is no way a WR2 in a prolific offense tethered to Rodgers should have an ADP outside of the top-100. Crazy enough, though, Valdes-Scantling is falling out of the top-150 in many drafts. The alarmingly low ADP can be attributed to the lack of clarity on his role. While it is obvious to me that MVS is locked and loaded for the WR2 role in Green Bay, there are plenty of fantasy gamers who still believe it may be Allison or even Kumerow. Reports and comments out of offseason activities and mini-camps indicate MVS is the clear choice. When we factor in rookie performance and athletic profiles, MVS is the only rational option.
This overlook by the fantasy community will be corrected eventually. It is vital to take advantage of the low cost now and pounce on the massive upside Valdes-Scantling provides. The WR2 job will bring 100-plus targets and a real shot at 1,000 yards. Push the button on MVS in the double-digit rounds.
