Seven Fantasy Draft Tips And Tricks
Let me start by saying that there is no perfect draft strategy in fantasy football. If there was, there wouldn’t be any fun in this silly game we play for 16 weeks every year. Zero RB, Zero WR, two early TEs, no TEs, etc…they all have their merits and faults. The fun part about fantasy is you get to create your own strategy, your own team, and OWN it. I have seen and used just about every strategy under the sun. I have made money–and lost money–with each. But through 14 years of fantasy, I have used a few draft tips and tricks that work more often than not. These should be true year over year, regardless of what other strategies you employ. While not each of these will work 100-percent of the time, they will help you avoid some major pitfalls while also hit a few home runs.
Tip No.1: Avoid Players In Bad Offenses
Candidates this year: Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Cardinals, Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, Raiders, 49ers, Titans, Redskins
Bad offenses lead to fewer first downs, fewer opportunities for yards and touchdowns. This generally results in sub-par fantasy performances. Before you freak out and head to the comments section to yell at me…this does not mean to not draft Saquon Barkley or Joe Mixon. However, it can be a tiebreaker when I am choosing between Mixon, Nick Chubb, James Conner, and Dalvin Cook. While it can apply to QBs and RBs, this rule has more of an emphasis on the pass catchers. I want to avoid receivers on bad offenses. It is why in 2018 I avoided players like Corey Davis and Odell Beckham Jr.
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The biggest culprits I am AVOIDING because of this at current ADP: LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, David Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Robby Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Dede Westbrook, Marvin Jones, Christian Kirk, Corey Davis, Courtland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Golden Tate, Jamison Crowder, Adam Humphries, John Brown.
Tip No.2: Target Players In Good Offenses
Candidates this year: Chiefs, Eagles, Buccaneers, Saints, Rams, Falcons, Packers
The flip side of my first tip. Good offenses lead to more first downs, more opportunities, and more touchdowns. Again, before your freak out and head to the comments section to yell at me….this is not an article telling you to draft Davante Adams! You already know that! Most of the top-20 players at each position are on good offenses. This tip more comes into play in the middle and late rounds. For example, give me a player like Will Fuller on a potentially great offense, over players around him in terrible offenses. Give me James Washington or Donte Moncrief over Michael Gallup, Sutton, or Davis.
The primary players I am TARGETING because of this at current ADP: Nick Chubb, Devonta Freeman, Chris Godwin, Fuller, Washington, Moncrief, Keke Coutee, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tip No. 3: “Back-Up” RBs In Great Offenses > “Starters” In Poor Offenses
If you’re noticing a trend, yes, this is similar to the above tips. This is more in reference to running backs, while the previous two focused more on wide receivers. This year, some running backs will be named the starter in a poor offense or rushing scheme, and the hype will build because they are the “starter”. I don’t care. It is why I avoided LeSean McCoy like the plague last year.
This year, AVOID: Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel, Phillip Lindsay, Derrius Guice
Tip No. 3B: Don’t Be Afraid Of Crowded Backfields…
…Just take the cheapest guy or your favorite guy, as long as it is a value. Don’t avoid guys simply because they aren’t the starter yet. I want to target running backs that are getting some quality touches and possess the upside to be the starter at some point as well (either through injury or performance…or a LeVeon Bell holdout). This is why I targeted James Conner, Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb last year.
This year, TARGET: Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson, Latavius Murray, Duke Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Jaylen Samuels, Alexander Mattison
Tip No. 4: Draft Players That Have High Floors AND High Ceilings
Buried in the middle of this article is probably my favorite and most important tip. I eluded to this in the above tip, but you want to target players that are getting some production on the field, but also have the opportunity to be THE GUY. Ekeler perfectly encapsulates this rule. Ekeler provides weekly flex value when Melvin Gordon plays. He is a capable bye-week fill in. In 2018, Ekeler had five weeks over 10 fantasy points when Gordon played. In the case that Gordon sits, Ekeler has the opportunity to be the guy, leading to more fantasy production. I would prefer Ekeler over guys like Lamar Miller, McCoy, Royce Freeman, and Jordan Howard.
This year, TARGET: Austin Ekeler, Darrell Henderon, Rashaad Penny, Latavius Murray, Duke Johnson
Tip No. 4B: Draft Players Who Are Being Drafted At Their Floor, Not Their Ceiling
Similar to the above strategy, it is important to keep in mind ceilings and floors of players, and draft accordingly. Think about a player’s range of outcomes. If they are being drafted at their lowest range of outcomes (floor), then they are a value at their current ADP. For example, Cooper Kupp is currently being drafted at WR19. It is unlikely that a healthy Kupp is not a top-20 WR by the end of the season. He is currently being drafted at what I perceive to be his floor. His ceiling is a top-eight or so WR (was pacing WR9 numbers before injury). This screams buy.
This year, players with ADPs at their floor (TARGET): Mike Evans, Kupp, Chris Godwin, Tyler Boyd, James White, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Latavius Murray, Rashaad Penny
Tip No. 4C: Avoid Players At Their Ceiling
This year, players with ADPs at their ceiling (AVOID): LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Lamar Miller, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, George Kittle, Evan Engram, David Njoku
Tip No. 5: Do Not Draft Boom/Bust Players
You know the type. DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn Jr., Sammy Watkins. They might win you a week, but they also will lose you a week. These kind of players are not reliable in a weekly game (as the talented Mr. Roto himself says, this IS a weekly game). These kind of players will never be more than they already are, which is boom/bust. Give me a guy that has the opportunity to be a weekly producer at some point during the season than someone who could give me 0 points. When it comes to the running back position, these are guys that are heavily touchdown dependent (think Jordan Howard last year). If they don’t fall into the end zone, they are going to lose you your fantasy week.
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Boom/Bust players I am AVOIDING: Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, Robby Anderson, Watkins, Jackson, DK Metcalf, Kenny Stills, Ginn Jr., Marquise Brown, John Brown, Mecole Hardman, Peyton Barber, Howard
Tip No. 6: Always Keep Roster Construction In Mind
This one is common sense, but is easily forgotten in the heat of the draft moment. Always be mindful of what pieces are already on your team. If you have two top-end WRs, it is not as necessary to fill your bench with WRs. Go after high upside RBs instead towards the end of your draft. The reverse is also true.
Tip No. 7: Don’t Be Afraid To Reach For ‘Your Guy’
The worst feeling in fantasy is not getting “your guys” and then watching them go off on your opponent’s roster. Last year, James Conner and Patrick Mahomes were my guys. I missed on them in multiple drafts and I felt sick about it all year long.
https://twitter.com/ffdynastyking/status/1158235916160262149?s=20
Never feel bad about reaching for your guy. I love Rashaad Penny this year. No, I won’t draft him in the first round, but will I take him in round eight instead of his round 10/11 ADP? You bet your sweet little fanny I will.
My guys: Nick Chubb, Chris Godwin, Will Fuller, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson, Devin Singletary, Jared Goff
