Christian Kirk 2019: Breakout Season
While most people spend their summer poolside or enjoying a relaxing walk on the beach, I spend mine driving trains. No, not that kind of train. The ones I drive are called hype trains. My favorite to drive this year is called the Christian Kirk 2019. Oh man, it’s a beauty. It’s young and fast with a newly refined engine. I’m driving it all across the country, final destination Arizona.
College Dominator
Kirk was one of the top wide receiver prospects to enter the 2018 draft. He broke out at Texas A&M as a true freshman with 80 receptions for 1,009 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games. His three-year career finished with 234 receptions for 2,856 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also recorded 121 rushing yards on 21 carries with seven combined kick/punt return scores. Kirk was a 36.8-percent (73rd-percentile) college dominator with an 18.8 (93rd-percentile) breakout age. Kirk ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. At 5-10, 201-pounds, that translates to a 96.6 (58th-percentile) speed score. The combination of his athletic and production profiles are best comparable to Vikings star Stefon Diggs. While that is a lofty comparison, Kirk flashed potential in year one.
Where Do You Rank Christian Kirk in 2019? – Create Your Own Rankings Now!
Rookie Season
Kirk transitioned well to the NFL game despite a lack of talent around him and a coaching staff stuck in the stone ages. He finished his rookie campaign with 590 yards and three touchdowns on 43 receptions (68 targets). He had a dominator rating of 26.8-percent (No. 23). Kirk was fifth in target premium at +39.9. His 89.6-percent true catch rate was 12th best. He ended the season on injured reserve after fracturing his foot in Week 13.
New Coach, New QB, New Offense
Kirk and new head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense are meant for each other. The system is the complete contrary to the outdated offense Arizona ran under Steve Wilks last season. Kingsbury brings his high-volume passing attack that he ran for the last several years at Texas Tech. The system is designed to create space for pass catchers and targets the short areas of the field with quick passes. This plays right into Kirk’s wheelhouse. Kirk operates well underneath, as evidenced by his 13.7 yards per reception and 8.7 yards per target as a rookie. His average target distance was 10.4 yards. This goes back to his college days too, when he averaged 12.9 yards per reception in his final season. Kirk will play both outside and in the slot in Kingsbury’s offense. He showcased that versatility last season by taking 21.5-percent of his snaps from the slot.
Christian Kirk
2018:
43 receptions (68 targets) for 590 yards & three touchdowns in 12 games
True Catch Rate: 89.6-percent
+39.9 Target Premium (No.5)
26.8 Dominator rating (No.23)2019: In line for 110+ targets. Gets QB upgrade in a now pass-heavy offense
9th round ADP 🤷🏻♂️🤦♂️ pic.twitter.com/p0GHmQcuEe
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) June 22, 2019
With Kingsbury’s desire to run a ton of plays, the Cardinals are in position to see the largest increase in snaps per game we have ever seen for an offense from one year to the next. Of course more volume means more fantasy points. First overall pick quarterback Kyler Murray will be of further assistance in creating a more efficient offense.
Breakout Season 2019
The Cardinals selected three wide receivers in the draft and still have fountain of youth Larry Fitzgerald, but Kirk projects as the No.1 option in the passing game. A season of 120 targets, 80 receptions, and over 1,000 yards is a realistic projection for the second-year wideout. His current ADP in the eighth round provides great value for fantasy gamers looking for high upside outside of the top-100 selections. I am pressing the button on Kirk every time the eighth or ninth round comes along, sometimes even earlier if necessary. The hype is real and the breakout is coming. Get on board before this train leaves without you.
