AFC South Fantasy Preview
With training camps kicking off, I am previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. There are no easy outs in the tough AFC South, where both Houston and Indianapolis made the playoffs. Tennessee just missed and Jacksonville added former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. The tough setting in the South spawns plenty of fantasy plot lines. Time to take a closer look with this AFC South fantasy preview…hope you like!
Houston Texans
Can Will Fuller and Keke Coutee Stay Healthy?
The Texans reach another level when Will Fuller shines. Unfortunately, Fuller has been limited to 30 games in three seasons due to injury. He should be recovered from his most recent injury, a torn ACL, by Week 1. Of course, not all recoveries are equal and the fear factor with Fuller may cause many owners to take a pass. Like Fuller, Keke Coutee spent plenty of 2018 on the sidelines, but dazzled at times. Coutee made an immediate impact by racking up 11 receptions against the Colts in his first game. He had just 17 receptions the rest of the regular season. Then, he tore through the Colts for 11 receptions in the playoffs. So if Coutee gets 11 receptions against Indianapolis this year, do not be surprised.
How should you approach these talented, but fragile players? There will always be the risk of an injury during the season with any player. However, if all systems go is the story heading into the season, the rewards outweigh the risks. While their ADP may rise as the regular season gets closer, Fuller (7.09 ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator) and Coutee (11.09) are bargains. Just make sure you have plenty of depth if you choose either player. And if both players stay healthy, Deshaun Watson will be more than just a QB1. He may be the QB1.
D’onta Foreman on the Rise?
Not the most beloved back in fantasy, Lamar Miller hangs around by virtue of his lead role in Houston. If your strategy involves fewer runners and more receivers early in drafts, Miller is one to target. He is at least an adequate starter. Once thought to be a serious challenger to Miller, D’Onta Foreman was derailed by a torn Achilles in 2017. Foreman made a few cameo appearances in 2018, but he finally seems ready for a larger role. Alfred Blue departed in free agency, leaving a backfield of Miller, Foreman, and a bunch of unknowns. As a result, even if Foreman fails to overtake Miller, he may produce enough to help as a flex. Going in the second half of most drafts, Foreman can be viewed as a flyer with starter potential. His growth needs to be tracked when the Texans take the field in preseason. Houston made moves to improve an embattled offensive line, an additional plus for Foreman and Miller.
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Indianapolis Colts
Slide Show
In his first four seasons in Detroit, Eric Ebron scored 12 touchdowns. Last year during his first season with the Colts, Ebron astounded everyone with 14 visits to the end zone. Anyone out there want to bet on that happening again? Anyone? Bueller? Right now, if there were a Wikipedia page on touchdown regression, Ebron’s picture would be there.
Even factoring in inevitable regression, Ebron deserves a place at the TE1 table. His 66 receptions and 750 yards were career highs. Most importantly, he plays at the weakest offensive spot in fantasy. His draft cost remains cheaper than the likes of Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle. But with a current 6.11 ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator, you pay a higher price for 2018’s touchdown inflation. Let Ebron slide before you select him. At that price, dealing with a little disappointment would be much easier to handle.
Race for Receptions
Another reason for apprehension with Ebron concerns an improved cast in Indianapolis. Fellow tight end Jack Doyle, long a favorite of Andrew Luck, is healthy again. Doyle was limited to six games last year, a big reason why Ebron thrived. Another tight end, Mo Ali-Cox, shows promise.
In free agency, Indianapolis added Devin Funchess. Generally a disappointment in Carolina, Funchess hauled in eight touchdown passes in 2017. His 6’4” frame will be very inviting to Luck in the red zone. Second-round pick Parris Campbell, out of Ohio State, will take the short trip from Columbus to Indianapolis. Campbell uses speed to beat defenses like top Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton. Campbell may get less looks in the red zone, but ought to deliver some long-distance touchdowns. The Colts are also high on the returning Deon Cain, and Chester Rogers had 53 receptions last year. Captain Andrew Luck clearly has no shortage of weapons. While Hilton will lead the way, successfully analyzing the rest of the crew will give your team an edge.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette: Boom or Bust?
Between injury, suspension, and his 3.3 yards per carry career average, many will shy away from Leonard Fournette. Many also shied away from Todd Gurley after a down 2016. Gurley made doubters pay by emerging as a fantasy superstar. By no means am I saying Fournette is on the verge of being the next Gurley, however, if the Jacksonville brass still believes in Fournette, fantasy owners need to do the same.
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Although the Jaguars improved at quarterback by signing Nick Foles, they remain a run-centric offense. While Jacksonville has shuffled the depth chart behind Fournette, they did not add a formidable challenger. Alfred Blue and Benny Cunningham offer help, but neither are lead backs. Retread Thomas Rawls has never found the form he showed early in Seattle. While rookie Ryquell Armstead might be a wild card, the large-scale plans for Fournette look firm. Fournette needs to emerge unscathed before the regular season starts. But with slightly depressed stock, serious RB1 opportunity exists at RB2 cost.
Nick Needs a Number One
Nick Foles greatly improves Jacksonville’s overall prospects. No longer will the Jags be sabotaged by Blake Bortles. However, Foles has a supporting cast much weaker than the one he left behind in Philadelphia. If Marqise Lee gets healthy, he would be a worthy candidate to be Foles’ main man. Lee was targeted 105 times in 2016 and 96 times in 2017. But with Lee still recovering from a knee injury, the focus is on Dede Westbook. Westbrook caught 66 passes for 717 yards and five touchdowns in 2018 despite the quarterback turmoil.
Other possibilities include D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, and former Chief Chris Conley. Rookie tight end Josh Oliver shows promise as well. In the end, the Jacksonville offense cannot support multiple receivers. If you target one, make it Westbrook. You may be able to pick him as your WR4 and watch him evolve into a WR3. Foles offers next to nothing in redraft, but with job security, he gives you a QB3 option in 2QB leagues.
Tennessee Titans
Will Derrick Dominate Again?
In the final four games of the 2018 season, Derrick Henry shredded defenses for 585 yards and four touchdowns. No one will forget his 99-yard score against Jacksonville. The torrid stretch triggers complications for fantasy owners. Was that the real Henry, or a fluke? Will he drift back into a timeshare with Dion Lewis?
Rest assured, Henry will lead the way. The Tennessee brass got a wake-up call. Although Lewis remains a factor as a receiver, they are not going to take early-down reps away from Henry. Somewhat surprisingly, Henry’s draft stock has not risen in the wake of last year’s fabulous finish. His ADP currently sits at the second/third round turn in 12-team standard leagues. If you are in that spot, you probably grabbed your RB1 first overall. Henry could be a heck of an RB2.
No More Marcus?
Frequently injured, and often uneven, Marcus Mariota’s time in Tennessee could be winding down. The Titans upgraded their backup situation by bringing aboard former Miami starter Ryan Tannehill. Can Mariota turn it around? To their credit, Tennessee gave Mariota some extra help by signing slot specialist Adam Humphries in free agency. They added A.J Brown in the draft to further boost their corps of wide receivers. Fellow wideouts Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor are capable of further improvement. Tight end Delanie Walker is returning from injury. If Walker does not look like his former self, Jonnu Smith is in line to take a step forward. Mariota has not been awful by any means. And his supporting cast certainly will not hold him back. However, with Tennessee’s offense now anchored by Henry, his fantasy impact will be spotty at best. You do not want to latch onto a player with limited job security and a low ceiling.
