AFC North Fantasy Football Season Preview
With training camps kicking off soon, we will be previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. The AFC North comes into focus with our latest article. After years of horrible football, Cleveland seems to be on the verge of a winning era. But Baltimore and Pittsburgh are hoping to stop the Browns from claiming their first division title in 30 years. Familiar faces in Cincinnati will be led by an unfamiliar coach. Dive into my AFC North fantasy preview as I look at this captivating division!
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar the Passer
Critics cannot deny Lamar Jackson racks up victories. In his final season at Louisville in 2017, the Cardinals were 8-5. Last year, without Jackson, Louisville sunk to 2-10. When he took over as Baltimore’s starter, the Ravens stood at 4-5. They finished 10-6 and earned the AFC North championship before losing to the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs. Still, at this point, rushing maestro Jackson can be considered more of a winner than a passer. For Baltimore to take the next step, growth throwing the ball must happen.
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Lamar’s evolution means a great deal to fantasy owners as well. His rushing ability gives him a safe floor. However, because the prevailing viewpoint pinpoints Jackson as just a runner, he lands in QB2 territory. What if he makes a massive surge as a passer in year two? If that happens, all of the owners snagging Jackson as a backup are going to be loving life. But everyone should temper expectations. Even if he improves greatly, Baltimore’s conservative nature probably stays in place. The Ravens added Mark Ingram and Justice Hill to the backfield and have a young group of receivers. On the plus side, they open with Miami and Arizona, which ought to ease growing pains.
As long as Jackson shows promise during the preseason, it makes sense to pair him with someone stable. At a deep position, credible choices such as Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers will be available before Jackson. You would have a fallback if his growth is limited and a potential superstar if everything falls right.
Could Jackson’s Top Target be a Tight End?
At wide receiver, the Ravens made a lot of changes. John Brown and Michael Crabtree are gone. Holdover Willie Snead remains, but at this stage of his career, Snead is a supporting cast member. While there are other returnees such as Chris Moore, Baltimore hopes rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin can make an immediate impact. But enough uncertainty exists out wide for Baltimore that Jackson may end up leaning on tight end Mark Andrews. The two connected on a 68-yard touchdown during a big win over the Chargers in Week 16. When Baltimore lost the rematch to Los Angeles in the playoffs, Andrews led the Ravens in targets.
Andrews, like every member of the Baltimore passing game, falls well short of being a sure thing. Last year’s first rounder Hayden Hurst looms as a challenger. And despite Jackson’s possibilities for growth, it’s not like he will be reaching 50 pass attempts very often. But our composite rankings have Andrews as a low-end TE1. His ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator stands at 14.09, which is TE2 terrain. Andrews makes a lot of sense as a low-cost flyer who could blossom into a quality starter.
Cincinnati Bengals
Zac Attack
It only seemed like Marvin Lewis had been in Cincinnati longer than Skyline Chili. For the first time since 2002, a new coach takes the Bengals into battle. Zac Taylor, formerly the quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams, becomes the tenth head coach in Cincinnati history. Part of the increasingly important “I know Sean McVay” world, Taylor plans on invigorating a stale franchise.
Cincinnati’s top fantasy players are still going to be Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals have depth behind Mixon in Giovani Bernard and rookies Rodney Anderson and Trayveon Williams. Mixon may not be overused as a result, but should be a safe late first-round pick.
Meanwhile, if Taylor implements elements of the Rams offense, Green and Boyd will be in good shape. The trio of Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods found plenty of success. The biggest issue with Green has been staying healthy. Nevertheless, with a current third-round ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator, Green looms as a big bargain. Boyd offers nice potential at his current sixth round cost. Offense should not be the problem in Cincinnati.
Will Dalton Deliver or Decline?
The NFL Draft brings regrets year after year. In 2017, Cincinnati took John Ross ninth overall. With the next pick, Kansas City selected Patrick Mahomes. Three picks after Ross landed with the Bengals, Houston traded up for Deshaun Watson. Given Andy Dalton falls well short of being a franchise quarterback, Cincinnati missed a golden opportunity. Ross heads into a last chance season in Cincinnati. And with Cincinnati’s fourth-round selection of Ryan Finley, Dalton might be drifting towards the end of his long tenure in the Queen City.
Or Dalton could thrive under Taylor. When Cincinnati’s offense was at full strength early in 2018, Dalton delivered a pair of stellar fantasy performances. He burned Baltimore for four touchdowns in Week 2. In Week 4, Dalton flustered the Falcons with three scoring tosses and 337 yards.
Dalton’s best year came back in 2013 with 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns. Since then, his primary role in fantasy leagues has been as a streamer or bye week replacement. Unless Finley stuns the world, expect Dalton to maintain his place in the fantasy galaxy. And this time around, a little more upside may possibly materialize.
Cleveland Browns
To Draft…or Not Draft Kareem Hunt
Cleveland created a controversy by signing Kareem Hunt, formerly of the Kansas City Chiefs. Any team adding Hunt and his checkered off-the-field record would make waves, but for Cleveland to make the move, it was both bizarre and sensible at the same time.
Browns general manager John Dorsey had drafted Hunt in Kansas City and gives troubled players second chances. So it was not shocking to see Dorsey reunite with Hunt. And yet, it was shocking given how well Nick Chubb played as a rookie. With a back like Chubb already on hand, why did Cleveland need Hunt? They also have talented, yet disgruntled, pass catching specialist Duke Johnson.
Regardless of Cleveland’s mindset, Hunt is suspended for eight games. Despite this, Hunt currently has an ADP of 8.02 at Fantasy Football Calculator. That would be a reasonable ADP if someone were suspended two games. If you take Hunt, you would be wasting a roster spot on a committee back for a large portion of the season. Use your draft capital wisely and avoid Hunt. About the only reason for drafting Hunt would be if Chubb lands on your squad. Even then, he needs to slide quite a bit to justify the selection.
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How is anybody drafting Kareem Hunt?! 🤦♂️#FantasyFootball
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) July 10, 2019
Baker/Beckham Chemistry
At the end of the season, I may look silly for writing this. The Browns have combined the forces of budding star Baker Mayfield and the already amazing Odell Beckham. How can this turn out wrong? Chances are, it will be a fabulous connection. However, both fiery players like things their way. Will they be able to compromise in the interest of bringing Cleveland a long-awaited winner? Beckham did not take part in every team activity during the offseason. It was not the most promising of starts, minor as it may be.
True concerns fall into several categories. One, Beckham has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons. Two, Mayfield already has bonds with Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Njoku, in particular, will steal some red zone looks. Three, Mayfield seems to be on a star trajectory. Some have forgotten his torrid run at the end of the season was marred by losses to Houston and Baltimore, where he threw three interceptions in both games. Those were the only winning teams Cleveland played after Week 9. Could Cleveland become a victim of high expectations?
And like I said, I may be wacky for voicing any concerns. But if you have any hesitancy with Beckham or Mayfield, make sure everything heads in the right direction. While the odds of internal crumbling are slim, given the high draft cost for both players, they are not entirely out of the question.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Conner Conundrum
In 13 games last year, James Conner scored 13 touchdowns. Le’Veon Bell’s replacement also accumulated 1,470 yards as one of 2018’s greatest draft steals. You would think many fantasy managers view Conner as a quintessential RB1 heading into training camp. But there are plenty who disagree.
Those dissenters point to Jaylen Samuels earning a larger role in Pittsburgh’s offense. In Week 15, Samuels filled in for an injured Conner and compiled 172 total yards in a win over New England. Samuels, an accomplished receiver, had seven receptions in Week 17 when Conner was back in the lineup. Could what happened in the season finale hint at a committee approach in the Steel City?
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Another reason for concern exists in the form of fourth-round pick Benny Snell. The former Kentucky Wildcat could creep into the mix with a strong preseason. As this fluid situation evolves, Conner’s current ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator is 1.11. Increased dialogue regarding a time share probably will cause that number to drop. At a lower cost, Conner’s value ironically rises. So how should you view Conner? Will the presence of Samuels and, to a lesser degree, Snell, drop him down to a RB2? Or will needless panic keep many from tabbing as their RB1?
Ultimately, Conner may not hit the heights he often hit last year. On the other hand, his lead role looks to be pretty secure. Do not plan on Conner being a major bust.
Who’s Number Two After Juju?
The simple answer might be tight end Vance McDonald. Targeting McDonald as your TE1 after other big names exit the draft board embodies a reasonably wise strategy. But with Vance a known entity, we will investigate others capable of gobbling up targets. Former Colt and Jaguar Donte Moncrief notched seven touchdowns in 2016 on just 30 receptions. In 2015, Moncrief hauled in 64 passes for 733 yards and six scores. Those numbers were with Andrew Luck. In 2017 and 2018 with lesser quarterbacks, Moncrief’s upside disappeared. Now paired with a star quarterback again, Moncrief generated plenty of praise during OTAs.
James Washington, Pittsburgh’s second-round pick a year ago, had a bit of a late season surge. In the season finale, Washington hauled in three passes for 64 yards. He also had three receptions for 65 yards in Week 15. But overall, Washington did not make a major impact as a rookie. Pittsburgh felt they needed additional help, spending a third-round pick on Toledo’s Diontae Johnson.
None of the three can be counted on as regular fantasy starters. Pittsburgh will spread the wealth more than they did when Antonio Brown was around. But if any one of the trio clearly moves ahead before the regular season begins, they will become a coveted fantasy asset.
