AFC East: Fantasy Football Preview
With training camps kicking off soon, we will be previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. Our first voyage takes us to the AFC East fantasy football picture, where the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets will be looking up at the Patriots yet again.
Buffalo Bills
Who Will Be Buffalo’s Best Fantasy Back?
Turning 31 before the start of camp, LeSean McCoy had the worst season of his career in 2018. He rushed for a dismal 532 yards with a 3.2 yards per carry average. Shady did not score a touchdown until Week 10 and finished with just three for the season. In response, Buffalo beefed up their backfield by signing crafty veteran Frank Gore and former Jaguar T.J. Yeldon. Perhaps most importantly, the Bills drafted Devin Singletary out of Florida Atlantic in the third round. While fantasy owners can get unusually giddy over the potential of rookies, Singletary has the most upside given McCoy and Gore are fading and Yeldon, does not move the needle. A big preseason will give Singletary the largest role in what will be a committee.
Right now, with an ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator of 11.09 in standard leagues, Singletary looks like a steal if everything breaks right. Our consensus rankings offer further confirmation of his potential value relative to his Buffalo backfield mates.
Can Josh Allen Sustain Late 2018 Surge?
From Week 12 to the end of the season, Josh Allen surged into the hearts and souls of fantasy owners. One look at his stat line from Week 17 against Miami tells you all you need to know regarding his immense potential. Allen dismantled the Dolphins, throwing for 224 yards and three touchdowns. He added 95 yards on the ground and two more scores. He did this despite a supporting cast considered to be lackluster by many.
Buffalo added wide receivers Cole Beasley and John Brown through free agency. They join incumbents Zay Jones and Robert Foster.The team also brought in former Bengal Tyler Kroft and rookie Dawson Knox to help out at tight end. but Allen’s rushing ability still enhances his outlook way more than any of his receivers do. Nonetheless, Allen’s issues with accuracy need to be lessened in his second season before he earns full-time QB1 status. With quarterback being deep, one strategy would be to pair Allen with a seasoned veteran like Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger who can pick up the slack if Josh runs cold at times.
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Miami Dolphins
2017 Kenyan Drake = 2019 Kenyan Drake?
In 2018, the poor utilization of Kenyan Drake generated fantasy headlines and heartache. Despite being Miami’s best offensive player, the former head coach of the Dolphins built his ground game around the previously mentioned Frank Gore, long removed from his glory days in San Francisco. Even with reduced usage, Drake managed 1,012 total yards and scored nine touchdowns
New Miami head coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where backfield committees have been as commonplace in Boston as Samuel Adams beer. But Drake appears to be leading a cast of characters that includes second-year man Kalen Ballage, police blotter superstar Mark Walton, AAF refugee Kenneth Farrow, and seventh-round pick Myles Gaskin.
Ballage, who has the size to be Miami’s goal line back, has a cheap ADP of 14.03 but Drake’s ADP of 5.02 makes him a reasonable comeback bet. While the Dolphins will be a bad team, Drake’s home run hitting ability can help keep fantasy teams in the championship race.
Fitzmagic or Rosen Revenge Tour?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, commonly referred to as Fitzmagic, added to his folklore last year by posting huge numbers in Tampa Bay. Often the most popular and sought after caretaker quarterback, Fitz migrated to Miami for a starting opportunity even though the Dolphins figured to add a young quarterback. That quarterback turned out to be Josh Rosen, Arizona’s 2018 first-round pick who the Cardinals jettisoned to draft Kyler Murray.
Unfortunately for fans of Fitz, expect more tragic than magic in Miami. With the incredible supporting cast in Tampa left behind, Ryan might light it up once in awhile, but the potential of box score bonanzas drops considerably. He may be the starter now, but once the Dolphins inevitably drop out of contention, they will cast their lot with Rosen. Ultimately, neither has real value beyond 2QB leagues. If you are in one of those leagues, keeping tabs on who starts for the Dolphins may pay off in a pinch.
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New England Patriots
Another New England Backfield Nightmare?
Typically, any fantasy owner making an investment in a New England runner runs the risk of enduring a migraine trying to figure out what the Patriots have in mind. But last year, there was clarity for much of the season. Sony Michel gashed opponents on the ground and James White dominated through the air. Within that setup, fantasy owners could fully trust both players to be productive.
Alas, White’s production slipped later in the season once Rex Burkhead returned from injury. Michel’s outlook for 2019 looks a bit haunting with third-round pick Damien Harris now in New England. Harris looked good in the first round of offseason workouts while Michel missed time with a knee issue. It’s a potentially troubling development given Michel has had knee problems in the past. Although Michel’s expected back for camp, Harris will not be vanishing as a challenger.
If you glance at our consensus rankings, the gap between starters and backups can be big. For example, Saquon Barkley checks in at number three while the next closest Giant, Rod Smith, can be found at 65. Michel, at 24, is only 11 spots ahead of Harris at 35. Between them, White earns a slot at 32. Even Burkhead cannot be ignored completely. Should fantasy owners still target Michel in rounds 4-6 or ignore him and target White or Harris later? July and August will tell the tale.
Edelman…and?
At this point, anyone arguing against Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback of all-time will find themselves struggling to prove otherwise. But even the G.O.A.T. needs weapons. The overall lack of them in New England means Brady heads into 2019 as a fantasy QB2. Back in 2006, New England’s leading receiver was Reche Caldwell. Brady finished that season with 24 touchdown tosses. The next year, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker added to the roster, Brady obliterated the NFL with 50 scoring strikes. So yes, weapons matter to everyone, even Tom Terrific. Dependable Julian Edelman returns as a target monster. But beyond Edelman, a lot of question marks exist.
Among the rest of the wide receivers, rookie N’Keal Harry must prove his worth. He can help fill the void left by Rob Gronkowski’s retirement and be the best bet beyond Edelman in terms of fantasy production. The rest of the crew consists of unproven Braxton Barrios, declining Demaryius Thomas, journeyman Dontrelle Inman and hit-or-miss speedster Phillip Dorsett. Maybe Josh Gordon comes back at some point, but investing in a New England receiver other than Edelman or Harry looks very risky.
And investing in a New England tight end looks even riskier. Ben Watson will be suspended for the first four games of the season and does not have much left in the tank. Matt LaCosse, a largely unknown former Bronco, looks to be in the lead role. Sleeper pick Stephen Anderson and Ryan Izzo are hanging around as well. Many players find success in New England out of nowhere, so anyone who shows hopeful signs needs to be monitored. But at the moment, you should not be sad if your competition overdrafts Brady based on name value.
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New York Jets
Will Le’Veon Bell Justify First-Round ADP?
Le’Veon Bell is easily one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football this year. He has a first-round ADP despite not having played since 2017. In theory, that means Bell went an entire season without wear and tear. But it also brings up the question of rust and whether Bell can be as effective as he was in Pittsburgh.
Most recently, Bell made headlines in a bizarre story where he was robbed by two women while he was working out. While no one likes to hear of someone being robbed, a sarcastic response to the news would at least give him credit for working out. Conditioning had been called into question at times during his sabbatical from the Steelers. The Jets have Adam Gase now in place as head coach. He’s the same man who iced Kenyan Drake last season in Miami. Drake falls short of Bell in terms of talent, but if you are looking for another reason to be leery of Bell, you’re welcome. In the end, volume will be the reason Bell justifies his draft position. His bust probability, though, is higher than it was in Pittsburgh. If the headlines are sour before the season starts, go for a safer player in the first round.
Suspension for Chris Herndon?
At one point as a rookie last year, tight end Chris Herndon scored touchdowns in three straight games. In Week 16, the former Miami Hurricane showcased his skills against Green Bay, catching six passes for 82 yards and a score. While New York has resources at wide receiver in Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jamison Crowder, Herndon could lead the team in touchdown receptions as Sam Darnold grows in his second season. If he can pull that off, Herndon would provide at least low-end TE1 value at fantasy football’s most challenging position.
Alas, Herndon’s path to your starting lineup could be blocked by a suspension to start the season. Having plead guilty to DWI, Herndon seems certain to miss time. Ordinarily, a player suspension harms the value of a player, but shrewd fantasy owners have the means to take advantage of Herndon’s potential absence. If he stays within the range of his current ADP of 14.02, owners will be drafting him as their TE2. Who would complain about a TE2 with real potential to turn into a TE1?
