Part One: Fantasy Football Players To Avoid Based On ADP
As we gear up for our 2019 redraft leagues, I am compiling a list of 20 over-valued players I am avoiding based on current fantasy football ADP. Each month I will revisit and see who needs to be removed or added to our list. For the purpose of this exercise, I will be compiling a list of late-round picks defined as after round 10, middle round picks rounds 5-10 and early round picks. ADP data is based on PPR leagues via FFCalculator.
Late Rounders I’m Avoiding
20. Ryquell Armstead (RB, Jacksonville)
Ryquell Armstead is being drafted in the 13th round of PPR leagues. In this range I’d rather look elsewhere. Armstead is the likely handcuff to Leonard Fournette who has a history of ankle injuries. Armstead lacks pass blocking ability and isn’t the best receiver out of the backfield. With only Alfred Blue and Thomas Rawls on the depth chart, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguars looked for a third-down back once cuts happen or even explore a trade for Duke Johnson. Should Fournette go down, I’d anticipate the Jaguars going with a RBBC and rely on old Blue. Armstead isn’t a handcuff worth drafting, Pass.
19. Donte Moncrief (WR, Pittsburgh)
Donte Moncrief is being drafted in the late 13th round of drafts. There a bunch of higher upside WR’s I’d rather have. Moncrief will have his big games but his consistency will be all over the place. The Steelers have 168 vacated targets from the departure of Antonio Brown. If Moncrief gets half of those targets, at his career average of 12.7 YPC we are looking at a 50 catch, 635 yard season. I expect James Washington and rookie Dionte Johnson to player a larger role in compliment to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Running Back Jaylen Samuels is also a sneaky option who will get more targets than most are expecting.
A lot of vacant targets this year in the Pittsburgh offense with AB taking 168 with him to Oakland.
After Brown and Juju, Vance McDonald had only 73 followed by James Conner with 71.
Who will bridge the gap for #2 in targets?
— FineHour (@JFineHour) June 10, 2019
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18. Anthony Miller (WR, Chicago)
Anthony Miller has an ADP in the 12th round. I’m expecting fantasy point regression from the second-year Bears wideout. Miller had seven touchdowns on 33 receptions in 2018. Mitchell Trubisky likes to spread the ball around in this west coast offense. Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Cordarrelle Patterson, Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen, Mike Davis, and David Montgomery are all competing for targets. In the 12th round or later, receivers such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, John Brown, and Keke Coutee are better options.
Anthony Miller was only targeted on 6% of Chicago’s 2018 offensive snaps. Chicago likes to spread it around West Coast style. @createArank @fantasy_finest
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) June 13, 2019
17. Tyrell Williams (WR, Oakland)
Tyrell Williams is being drafted in the 12th round and, like Miller, I am staying away at that price. Give me the guys with better quarterbacks or less competition for targets. Coach John Gruden and the Raiders want to run the ball more. Selecting Josh Jacobs, a three-down back, in the first round was the first step to making that happen. Antonio Brown was traded for and signed to a large contract and will command a big chunk of Derek Carr’s targets. While there is not much competition behind Williams, who signed a four-year, $44 million deal, I expect about 40-55 catches, 650-850 yards and 4-6 TD’s from the former Charger. Williams is a stretch-the-field deep threat who won’t offer the week-to-week consistency and predictability of other receivers being drafted around him. Give me the guys with the better quarterback or greater upside.
16. Matt Breida (RB, San Francisco)
Matt Breida‘s 11th round ADP is baffling to me. The 49ers get a healthy Jerick McKinnon back signed Tevin Coleman in the offseason. With a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo back and speed added to the receiving depth chart, the 49ers have a lot of mouths to feed for. McKinnon is a capable pass-catching back, as he showed during his days in Minnesota with seasons of 43 and 51 receptions under his belt. In order for Breida to become a viable weekly starter, an injury would have to occur to one or both of the backs above him on the depth chart.
15. Adrian Peterson (RB, Washington)
Coming off the board in the 10th round, Adrian Peterson is a pass for me. The Redskins are going to be a train wreck this year and come mid-season they will likely be giving the keys to first-round quarterback Dwayne Haskins. The offensive line is in shambles and now left tackle Trent Williams wants to be traded. The line will see many stacked fronts as the Redskins with either journey man Case Keenum or the rookie behind center.
Derrius Guice was drafted in the second round in 2018 and is fully healthy and ready to carry the load. I see the Redskins easing Guice into the RB1 role, As the Redskins fall out of the playoff picture, Peterson will fade off into the sunset. There is no denying Peterson defied father-time last year rushing 251 times for 1,042 yards. But at age 34, I see Peterson being the ‘Frank Gore-like’ mentor to Guice.
Since 2000: RB seasons of 34 years or older.
1. Frank Gore, 2017 – 961 yds, 3 TD
2. Emmitt Smith, 2004 – 937 yds, 9 TDs
3. Frank Gore, 2018 – 722 yds, 0 TDs
4. Ricky Williams, 2011 – 444 yds, 2 TDs
5. Dorsey Levens, 2004 – 410 yds, 4 TDs
@createArank @fantasy_finest
— G-reg (@Gregobomb) June 12, 2019
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14. Mecole Hardman (WR, Kansas City)
Let’s slow down the Mecole Hardman hype train right now. Hardman has been over-drafted this spring with an ADP in the 10th round. With uncertainty on Tyreek Hill’s legal situation and Sammy Watkins’ lingering foot and hip issues, Hardman has shot up draft boards. Patrick Mahomes is likely to regress in numbers a bit after his 2018 MVP season.
Many are assuming Hill won’t be playing this season but with the recent news of the police department in Kansas City not pressing charges and closing the investigation, it is no lock that he faces any discipline from the league. If Hill is suspended 4-6 games he will still out produce Watkins and Hardman. Travis Kelce and Damien Williams will be the focal points of the offense if Hill misses time. I’d also rather draft Watkins a few rounds earlier as it’ll take Hardman, a raw prospect, time to adjust to the NFL game.
13. TJ Hockenson (TE, Detroit)
Rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson has been going around the 10th to 11th round. At that price, there are other tight end options I’d rather have. It is rare that we see rookie tight ends be reliable fantasy producers. It generally takes two or three years to turn into a fantasy starter. The Lions no longer have Golden Tate but they added Danny Amendola to play the slot and former Steelers tight end Jesse James to take the load off the rookie early on. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay will see the bulk of the targets in this run-first offense. I’d rather have Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, Chris Herndon, Jordan Reed, or Trey Burton a round or more later.
Best rookie TE seasons by yards:
1. Jeremy Shockley, 2002 – 74 rec-894 yds-2 TDs, 128 targets
2. Evan Engram, 2017- 64-722-6, 115 targets
3. John Carlson, 2008 – 55-627-5, 80 targets
4. Tim Wright, 2013 – 54-571-5, 76 targets
5. Aaron Hernandez, 2010 – 45-563-6, 64 targets
— FineHour (@JFineHour) June 12, 2019
12. Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo)
I am letting others draft the upside of Josh Allen heading into year two, while I draft a safer option. Josh Allen, who has an ADP in the 11th round, has a bunch of new receivers to work. The upside is certainty there, but I can’t press the button before Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Trubisky, and Matthew Stafford. These are proven quarterbacks with better weapons. Give me the guys throwing to Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson and Golladay, over the quarterback with John Brown and Zay Jones as his top targets. Allen is being drafted as a top-end when he should be in the QB22-24 range.
11. Phillip Rivers (QB, Los Angeles Chargers)
Phillip Rivers is the model of consistency. If you’re looking for a safe floor of 250 yards and two scores, then he is your guy. At QB14 in the 10th round, there are a handful of other quarterbacks that will produce similar results four or more rounds later. My advice would be to not fall in love with any quarterback. Try a few mock drafts where you are the last team to select a quarterback. I would even let a handful of teams select a backup before your first. Then, you can draft Stafford three or four rounds later and have that same 4,500 yard, 30 touchdown season at a discounted cost.
Stay tuned for Part Two coming soon!
