Dynasty Startup Draft Strategy: WR over RB
Have you ever made an argument with no evidence and then tried to find some afterwards to support your claim? That is exactly how this article came to existence. In dynasty startups I have been investing early in “elite” wide receivers and targeting running backs in the middle rounds. My only rationale for this strategy had been that I had heard once or twice that the elite wide receivers are more consistent than elite running backs and that they have longer careers. With the inspiration of a friend who had already started doing research, I dove into a study of all the top-12 WRs and RBs since 2008. Here’s what I found and how it pertains to 2019 dynasty startup strategy.
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The Trends
Let’s start with the average career. Of all RBs and WRs that have finished top-12 at the position at least once since 2008, the average career span for an RB is 5.76 years and 7.55 years for a WR. Therefore, you are getting 1.79 more years out of a WR than an RB. Of all receivers who finished top-12 at least once since 2008, 63-percent were able to repeat a WR1 performance. Receivers were able to finish as a WR1 at least three times 38-percent of the time. For running backs, only 45-percent were able to repeat an RB1 performance. Only 25-percent finished as an RB1 at least three times.
The chart shows WRs and RBs with at least three top-12 finishes since 2008:
| Name | Top-12 Finishes | Name | Top-12 Finishes |
| Julio Jones | 6 | Adrian Peterson | 7 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | Matt Forte | 6 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | LeSean McCoy | 6 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | Jamaal Charles | 5 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | Frank Gore | 4 |
| Roddy White | 5 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | Chris Johnson | 4 |
| AJ Green | 4 | Ray Rice | 4 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | Arian Foster | 4 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | Marshawn Lynch | 4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | Le’Veon Bell | 3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | 3 | Todd Gurley | 3 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | David Johnson | 3 |
| Deandre Hopkins | 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | 3 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | Melvin Gordon | 3 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | Michael Turner | 3 |
| Michael Thomas | 3 | DeMarco Murray | 3 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | ||
| Wes Welker | 3 | ||
| Dez Bryant | 3 | ||
| Eric Decker | 3 |
The moral of the story is:
- Wide receivers have longer careers than running backs.
- Running backs are more likely to be one-hit wonders. In fact, it happens 55-percent of the time.
This is important information to consider when deciding on a 2019 dynasty startup strategy. After the four elite running backs are selected, wide receivers should be the preferred position in the first and second rounds. After that, the middle rounds have plenty of young, ascending running backs. We can stockpile these RBs and after a year or two of production, sell them at peak value and recycle the running back search. This way we avoid the high probability that the running back never returns to RB1 glory.
